"Economic Outlook and Forecasts" Research Note from BETAM

The Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research,BETAM, has published the note"Weak Recovery"in its seriesEconomic Outlook and Forecasts: March 2013, prepared by Dr. Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Research Assistant Barış Soybilgen.

Executive Summary

The seasonally and calendar adjusted Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased by 2.3 percent in January compared to the previous month. While the export volume index decreased by 0.4 percent, the import volume index increased by 5.7 percent. While the increase in the IPI in January does not point to a major recovery compared to the 4th quarter, the contribution of foreign trade to growth also appears negative for now. There are small signs of recovery in consumption and investment. Betam's first growth forecast for the first quarter of 2013 is 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter. Based on this forecast, we calculate the 1st quarter growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year as 3.0 percent. Our growth forecast for 2012 is still 2.6 percent.

In January, the foreign trade deficit was almost at the same level as in the same month of last year. There was also not much change in the current account deficit. The 12-month cumulative current account deficit, which was 46.9 billion dollars at the end of 2012 after revisions, was 46.8 billion dollars in January. Betam estimates that the current account deficit was 5.9 percent at the end of 2012 and will be 5.8 percent at the end of the first quarter.

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